A profitable-looking chip call near a large pay jump.
Constructed teaching hand. The purpose is to expose the decision variables, not provide a universal shove/call chart.
1. Freeze the state
Three players remain. Stacks are approximately 50%, 30% and 20% of chips. Payouts are 50%, 30% and 20% of the remaining prize pool. The medium stack faces an all-in from the chip leader while the short stack remains alive.
2. Chip EV is not cash EV
If the medium stack calls and loses, it can surrender a large amount of tournament prize equity while the short stack benefits from surviving. That elimination cost means the break-even hand strength can be higher than a simple pot-odds calculation suggests.
3. What must be specified
- Exact stacks after blinds and antes.
- Exact payouts.
- Shove range.
- Whether future skill edges are intentionally ignored.
- Whether the objective is chip EV or estimated prize EV.
Decision note
Without those inputs, naming a specific calling hand would create false precision. Use the ICM explorer to understand prize-equity geometry, then a properly specified range model for the hand decision.
Result — revealed last
Suppose the medium stack folds and the short stack busts two hands later. That later event does not retroactively validate the fold.