A flush draw facing a flop decision.
Constructed teaching hand. The later result is intentionally withheld until after the decision review.
1. Freeze the state
6-max cash. Hero is in position. Pot before Villain’s flop bet: $90. Villain bets $45. Hero holds A♠J♠ on K♠7♠2♦. Effective stack after Hero calls would still be $310.
2. Price the call
Hero calls $45 to contest a final flop pot of $180, so the immediate break-even equity threshold is 25%.
3. Do not blindly count nine outs
Nine spades remain unseen, but not every spade guarantees the final pot. Villain’s range can contain sets and made hands with redraws. The ace may be another improvement against some holdings but dangerous against others.
4. Range and future streets
Against a range containing one-pair hands, sets and strong draws, continuing can be defensible, especially in position. But “I have a flush draw” is not the analysis: the price, range, stack depth and realization of equity are.
Decision note
A call is defensible under many reasonable ranges at this price; a raise can also exist in some strategies because the nut-flush blocker and fold equity matter. Exact preference requires a stated range model.
Result — revealed last
Suppose the turn is 4♠ and Villain check-folds. The hand “worked,” but that does not prove the flop decision was correct. A brick runout would not prove it was wrong.